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Investment quotes from 2024

Governmental Sources

This note is intended to support decision makers in planning for residual waste treatment needs and to support our national resources and deliver a circular economy. The analysis presented here will support the planning process and should be given due consideration when proposing, designing, or considering residual waste infrastructure treatment needs. The results presented should be used to ensure that we do not deliver overcapacity, especially where this risks compromising waste prevention or recycling now or in the future... The modelling undertaken demonstrates that, following implementation of these [Extended Producer Responsibility, Simpler Recycling and Deposit Return Scheme] policies, there will be sufficient residual waste energy recovery (including waste incineration) infrastructure capacity to treat forecast municipal residual waste arisings at a national level.

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and Mary Creagh CBE MP:
The nation is reaching a point where national waste treatment capacity is sufficient to manage the total amount of non-recyclable waste households produce.... Those developing energy recovery facilities (at all stages in the process) are encouraged to consider forecast changes to future capacity, demand, and the Government’s circular economy opportunities in light of the evidence published today.

Environmental Consultancy Sources

Adrian Judge, Director of Tolvik:
Tolvik is regularly asked to assess the future balance between Residual Waste supply and EfW capacity...if our analysis is not favourable then we are increasingly being asked to change our assumptions. Most often this is a variant of 'can't you just increase the size of the modelled Catchment Area?'...when repeated across multiple projects, [this] is starting to lead us to question whether the risk of EfW over-capacity is as low as we had previously assumed.

Other Sources

Mike Terrell, Director at waste feedstock supplier Andusia:
Things like the UK ETS are creating uncertainty, and if you’re looking at an asset life of decades, when the government’s plan is to reduce waste completely… We’re at the point where those questions are being asked.

Investment quotes from 2023

Industry Sources

John Ahern, Business Development Director UK at Indaver:
...I think if you just leave it up to the market to decide when enough is enough - [then that is] probably not the way to go. Markets can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Cory Topco Limited:
The inclusion of EfW within the UK ETS will mean that the cost of treating waste in UK EfW plants will increase significantly - if fossil carbon content remains at around 50 per cent of residual waste composition by weight and that the cost of buying carbon emission allowances is £100/tonne, the inclusion will increase UK EfW gate fees by £50/tonne.

Other Sources

Dr Colin Church, Chief Executive of the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining (IOM3):
...If I were an investor looking to invest in Energy from Waste anywhere in the UK now I'd look at the examples in Wales, I'd look at the examples in Scotland, and I'd ask myself: 'Do I really believe the waste modelling I'm seeing? And is there really going to be enough waste to mean I'm going to get my money back over 25 years?'... If they're all having to do that to make their numbers stack up, then you are building up a potential problem for investors in Energy from Waste...

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